Room for wolf comeback in the Netherlands. A spatial analysis on the possibilities of settlement of wolves from European populations in the Netherlands: G. Lelieveld (2012)

Abstract
"Cumulative effects of climate change, pollution, over-harvesting, fragmentation, degradation and loss of habitat threaten biodiversity globally. In Europe, centuries long over-harvesting and persecution of large herbivores and carnivores resulted in local extinctions of large carnivores. At the end of the 20th century, legal protection resulted in stabilization and even increase of the European wolf populations. Now, the public debate forms a challenge in the recovery of wolf (Canis lupus) populations on the mainland of Europe. In West European countries, it is unclear where wolves can live after centuries of man manipulating the natural environment. To facilitate nature managers and policy makers to prepare for avoiding conflicts, it is important to know where wolves will settle in the Netherlands and what routes wolves will take to the Netherlands.
 
Based on presence of artificial surfaces, water bodies, human population density, road density and prey distribution and abundance, a habitat suitability model and a cost-distance analysis were done. Prey species were identified as all large ungulates occurring in the Netherlands: roe deer, red deer, fallow deer and wild boar.

Although the Netherlands is a dense populated country with high road density, wolves will still be able to find areas with low human disturbance and prey, mostly in the northeast of the Netherlands. There is room for at least 14 wolf packs. Although the French wolf population is less isolated, wolves from France and Germany will most likely migrate to the Netherlands via north and south of the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region. In a nearby area in the Netherlands a wolf was sighted in the summer of 2011.

However, the large degree of plasticity that wolves show cannot be modelled. The areas where wolves can live according to this research should be seen as areas where wolves are most likely to settle first. To account for the left out parameters, the scenario is conservative. Therefore, the suitability for 14 wolf packs should be considered as an ecological minimum based on the parameters used in this study. In addition, when wolves settle in the Netherlands, the parameters of the habitat suitability analysis have to be refined." [...]

Analysis of wolf migration routes based on the first scenario by cost-distance analysis with the wolf populations in Germany and France as source (both indicated with a wolf and cub) and modelled wolf range in the Netherlands as sink population (all three areas in dark green). In red are the areas most difficult to reach for wolves.

Migration routes
The two scenarios of migration routes for wolves from West-European populations to the Netherlands, analysed by a cost-distance analysis, are shown in Figure 6 below and in Figure 7 on the next page. The colours in the maps indicate the costs of the routes between the sources and sink populations, considering human population density, land use and road density. As mentioned in chapter 2.4.2, the first scenario assumes wolves are almost as strict in their suitability for migration as for habitat, whereas the second scenario assumes that unfavourable land use and population densities hinder wolves only slightly and that major roads prove relatively more challenging.

Both maps show that wolves from the French wolf population experience less costs to migrate than German wolfs. For example, the cost for French wolves to follow the river Rhine up north to the Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan region is comparable to the cost of German wolves migrating to the Czech Republic. That French wolves have better possibilities to migrate is confirmed by frequent sightings of wolves in the Vosges Mountains (Lichtfield, 2009).

The path of the least resistance to the Netherlands would lead French wolves first to the north of the Rhine- Ruhr metropolitan region and then west to the Arnhem-Nijmegen region in the Netherlands. On three occasions in the late summer of 2011 several people stated to have seen a wolf in this region (Maanen, 2011). Wolves migrating from the German population will encounter more resistance due to unfavourable land use, almost exclusively agricultural lands and urban areas, in the west of Germany. [...]"

Distribution of wolf territories consisting of all non-water and non-urban areas within one kilometre of prime areas

Discussion
"This study examined which areas in the Netherlands are habitable for wolves considering human disturbance factors and prey abundance. The habitat suitability analysis showed that the Netherlands has ecological potential for a wolf population. This corresponds with experiences in Poland, Germany and France of wolves having no difficulties living in cultural landscapes (Jedrzejewski et al., 2008). Telemetry study of the one year old wolf ‘Alan’ showed that he had no problem avoiding humans when migrating from Germany to Belarus (Friedrich, 2010; Linnartz, 2012).

However, the large degree of plasticity that wolves show was not incorporated in the model. The areas where wolves can live according to this research should be seen as areas where wolves are most likely to settle first. The habitat suitability analysis gives a prediction based on a few parameters. Left out parameters are chance of mortality by collision with vehicles based on traffic intensity, speed and knowledge of roads with high risk of collision with other large animals. Traffic is one of the major factors of wolf mortality (Blanco and Cortes, 2007; Gazzola et al., 2005; Mech, 2006a). Other factors influencing the settlement and migration of wolves can be local and temporal effects of wildlife crossings, fences, steep canals, other landscape elements and hunting and tourism activities (Melis et al., 2009). To account for the left out parameters, the first scenario is conservative. Therefore, the resulting suitability for 16 wolf packs should be considered as an ecological minimum based on the parameters and cell size used in this study. [...]" 

"[...] The migration routes from source populations in Germany and France to the suitable habitats in the Netherlands was investigated in this study by cost-distance analysis. The suitable migration area in the Alps is in accordance with the habitat suitability model of the Alps (as shown in Appendix V) (Marucco et al., 2011). However, the analysis is done with large cell sizes and based on a few parameters. This implies that small-scale obstructions have not been taken into account. In addition, this type of analysis is sensitive to the settings of the parameters and the visualization, even though this effect was minimized as much as possible by performing two different scenarios. Therefore, the cost-distance analysis still gives an indication which areas are less accessible for wolves and which routes will be easier to migrate."

The areas where wolves settle and migrate are not solely ecologically based. A small wolf population or even a single wolf can form a conflict when considering the viewpoints of the cattle-breeders. Society’s attitude to wolves can be a problem, especially in West Europe where wolves recover after having long been exterminated. Here the level of human fear and intolerance of wolves is markedly higher than in regions where man and wolf have been coexisting for a long time (Linnell et al., 2003). It is in the best interest of the public and the wolves that conflicts are avoided by taking early action."

 Room for wolf comeback in the Netherlands. A spatial analysis on the possibilities of settlement of wolves from European populations in the Netherlands: G. Lelieveld (2012) http://bit.ly/QRz7YV (Publicado en http://www.wolveninnederland.nl/ )

Les gardiens de nos troupeaux. Un film de Paul Aurélien Combre (2010)

Les gardiens de nos troupeaux. Un film de Paul Aurélien Combre. Produit par Mona Lisa Production. Durée : 9 min. Public : usagers de l’espace rural et montagnard.

Film d’information sur les chiens de protection

"Pour protéger leurs troupeaux contre les prédateurs, les éleveurs et bergers utilisent à nouveau des chiens de protection. Ce ne sont pas des chiens de compagnie, ni des chiens de conduite: ils défendent le troupeau contre toute intrusion en raison de leur fort attachement aux brebis.

De l’hiver autour de la bergerie à l’été en alpage, découvrez leur travail et celui des bergers. Les chiens de protection sont de retour, apprenez à mieux les connaître et adoptez les bons gestes."

Ce film d'information grand public vise à informer les usagers de l'espace pastoral sur la présence et le rôle des chiens de protection des troupeaux domestiques. II apporte quelques conseils simples et essentiels sur les gestes à adopter en leur présence. D'autre part, il présente et valorise le pastoralisme en montagne, et sensibilise les usagers sur le partage de l'espace rural entre activités agricoles et activités de loisirs.

Ce projet documentaire a fait l'objet d'un important travail de concertation conduit par la DREAL et la DRAAF Rhône-Alpes en collaboration avec un comité de pilotage composé : des Fédérations Régionales Ovines du Sud-Est et Rhône-Alpes, l’Assemblée Permanente des Chambres d’Agriculture, du CERPAM, la Maison de la Transhumance,  la Société Centrale Canine, l'Institut pour la Promotion des  Chiens de Protection (Jean-Marc Landry, expert et  consultant), les DDT/ DDTM de l'arc alpin, la DREAL PACA,  les ministères de l'écologie et de l'agriculture.

Le film a été tourné tout au long de l’année 2009 dans les  Alpes, à Rougon (Alpes de Haute-Provence) et au col de  Vars (Hautes-Alpes).

Paru en mars 2010 Disponible en DVD et CD – Format 16/9 – Son : Stereo.

Film réalisé dans le cadre du "plan national d’actions sur le loup 2008-2012 dans le contexte français d’une activité importante et traditionnelle d’élevage"

Version librement téléchargeable et diffusable dans un cadre strictement gratuit 

Se puede descargar aquí 

Información recogida de Le Loup en France en esta página de Le site de l'État consacré au loup: http://www.rdbrmc-travaux.com/loup/

Fotografía de Alex_Moret

Le loup, le chien de protection et le tourisme    

Il n’existe pas en Europe d’études sur l’impact de la présence de loups sur la fréquentation touristique. Si certains affirment que le loup dissuade des touristes, il est probable que l’impact global est plutôt positif, comme c’est le cas dans certains parcs nationaux américains ou suédois.

En revanche la présence de chiens de protection dans les alpages peut inquiéter certains randonneurs qui préfèreront alors éviter ces zones. Bien que les études menées dans le Mercantour et le Queyras tendent à prouver que les interactions agressives des chiens de protection envers les promeneurs sont rares, voire exceptionnelles, des plaintes sont déposées chaque année par des personnes effrayées par la présence de ces impressionnants chiens "en liberté" et des cas de morsures sont parfois observés, souvent liés à une méconnaissance des pratiques pastorales et du rôle de ces chiens.

Pour réduire les éventuels incidents entre les chiens de protection et les usagers de l’espace montagnard et rural, des supports d’information ont été créés à destination du grand public.

Des panneaux de signalisation sont disposés à proximité des alpages. Ils indiquent la présence de troupeaux domestiques accompagnés de chiens et la conduite à tenir en leur présence, ainsi que les règles élémentaires de respect du troupeau, du berger et de son travail.

Pour compléter ce système d’information, des plaquettes, brochures d’information et affiches sur les chiens de protection sont distribuées dans différents points d’information (offices de tourisme, maisons des parcs nationaux, points d’information des Parcs naturels régionaux....). Elles présentent le chien de protection, son éducation et son rôle dans les troupeaux domestiques, et sensibilisent le public randonneur à la conduite à tenir en leur présence.  

Quels Comportements adopter en présence de chien de protection?

Nouveau panneau 2011Descargar aquí

Lors de vos randonnées en montagne, vous pouvez rencontrer des troupeaux de moutons au pâturage. Les chiens de protection sont là pour les protéger de toute agression. La règle d’or: gardez vos distances avec le troupeau. 

Le chien de protection n’est pas un chien de compagnie, il ne faut donc pas essayer de le caresser, de lui donner à manger ou de s’en approcher pour le prendre en photo. Il n’est cependant pas dressé pour être agressif mais il est éduqué pour être dissuasif. En arrivant à proximité d’un troupeau, il peut s’approcher de vous, jusqu’à vous sentir, parfois en aboyant. Restez calme, laissez-vous renifler, parlez-lui calmement, évitez les gestes brusques, de le menacer avec un bâton ou une pierre et évitez de crier. 

Panneau de 2007 à 2010 Descargar aquí

Contournez le troupeau quand cela est possible plutôt que de le traverser, même s’il se trouve sur le sentier que vous suivez! S’approcher trop près du troupeau, tenter de caresser ou de prendre un agneau dans ses bras peut-être interprété par le chien de protection comme un acte d’agression envers les animaux qu’ils protègent.

Si vous êtes à vélo, descendez lorsque vous êtes à proximité du troupeau et contournez calmement le troupeau en marchant. 


 
Si vous vous trouvez sur un secteur où les chiens de compagnie sont autorisés, pensez à les tenir en laisse. Même le plus petit chien peut partir en courant en direction du troupeau. Le chien de protection risque d’interpréter cette action comme une tentative de prédation et s’interposera. Ne portez pas votre chien dans vos bras à l’approche du chien de protection.

N’oubliez pas que la montagne est aussi un espace de travail. Respecter la quiétude du troupeau, c’est respecter le travail des éleveurs et des bergers.


Un divertido y didáctico cómic. Descargar aquí

Improving coexistence of large carnivores and agriculture in S. Europe: COEX (European Comission, 2004-2008)

Objective
To develop the necessary legal and socio-economic conditions for the conservation of large carnivores in the target areas by reducing conflict situations that affect the conservation of these species, through a participatory approach.

Map of general location of the project areas

Actions and means involved
The main fields of activity involved in the present project will be
• The implementation of the use of effective damage prevention methods, such as the use of electric fences, high-quality and well-trained livestock guarding dogs, the optimal use of traditional fences and the management of livestock in order to reduce the danger of depredation.
• Raising the awareness of the general public and of farmers on the ways of coexistence between large carnivores and human activities.
• The improvement of mitigation systems such as damage compensation to turn them into tools that can effectively reduce the economic damage farmers suffer.
• Management actions to prevent conflict situations caused by stray dogs and bears feeding on garbage and the accidental killings of wolves and bears during wild boar hunts.
• Raising awareness of farmers about the potential economic benefit that non-consumptive use of carnivores can provide.
• The transfer of experience and best practice from areas that have developed efficient ways to solve the conflicts onto areas that report similar problematic conflict situations.
• Monitoring the effectiveness of the implemented measures in order to identify particular situations where the measures can work best and to find optimal combinations of strategies for different contexts.
 

Expected results
• The amount of damage on livestock, beehives and crops has decreased by 20%.
• The use of effective damage prevention techniques is known to 80% of the farmers in the involved project areas.
• The attitudes and knowledge of farmers and of the general public about large carnivores have improved.
• Effective compensation systems exist in the target areas.
• An action plan for the management of stray dogs is in place and accepted by the local authorities.
• The awareness of farmers about the potential economic benefit they can gain from the presence of carnivores has increased.
• The numbers of habituated bears has decreased.

Specie targeted: Canis lupus

Ecology: Wolves are generalist predators; they commonly prey according to availability of prey in the areas they inhabit. Their diet may include medium to large prey such as roe deer and wild boar (Sus scrofa), as well as rabbits, invertebrates, vegetables and carcasses. Domestic livestock, particularly sheep, are killed for food. A pack is generally a family unit that originates from a mating pair established in a territory. The relationships between the members of a pack are extremely dynamic, but dominated by a very well established hierarchy. Wolves live in packs of variable size, depending on the area they live in. In Southern Europe packs are usually composed of the mating pair and their offspring only. Generally, only one pair mates in each pack, usually the dominant one, so-called alpha pair, but exceptions have been recorded both in Europe and North America. An average of six pups per litter are produced after a two month-period of gestation. Wolves inhabit extremely diverse areas, and their presence has been recorded virtually everywhere humans do not persecute them. Human disturbance and prey availability are the variables that influence their presence the most.

General distribution of the specie at European and national level and population trends: The actual European wolf consists of four large nuclei: the Scandinavian – Carpathian, the Dinaric – Balkan, the Italian and the Spanish ones. The overall population was reduced after WWII mainly due to human pressure, and has been recovering since the early 1970s. It is now expanding naturally into areas where it was locally extinct. The European wolf population is now estimated at around 15,000 individuals. In Spain, the population is expanding south of the Duero river, while in the Alps it is regaining areas of the Swiss and French part of the mountain range from the Italian part. The trend of the European wolf population is locally stable but in many areas increasing.

Size of the population targeted by the project (e.g. n° of individuals, % of European and/or national population): The project will include actions in selected areas within all the partner countries. Information will be given on a country basis.
Portugal: The Portuguese wolf population holds approx. 300 individuals (2% of the European wolf population), 90% of which inhabits the area north of River Douro (the Duero River in Spain). They are in continuity with the Spanish population. The study area includes two sites: the wolf range south to Douro River, and the central part of the population north of it. The former is isolated from the other Iberian wolf nuclei and is made of 6 packs with approx. 30 individuals (10% of the total Portuguese wolf population). The latter includes 12 packs with a total of approx. 60 wolves (20% of the total Portuguese wolf population).
Spain: The Spanish wolf population counts more than 2,000 animals, concentrated mainly in the north-western part of the country. Castilla y León region hosts approx. 1,000-1,500 wolves, representing 50-75% of the national population. The region south of the river Duero was recently recolonised by the species. Approximately 20 packs live inside this area, for a total of 100-140 individuals. This is 5-7% of the national population and 0.9% of the European population.
France: According to recent surveys the French wolf population amounts to approximately 40-50 individuals and is limited to the French Alps, where the species has expanded from the Italian Alps. As far as the bear is concerned, there are two population nuclei in the Central Pyrenees with approx. 10 individuals, and 1 population nucleus of 5-6 individuals ca. in the Western Pyrenees.
Italy: the Italian wolf population amounts to approx. 500 individuals (3% of the European population). Wolves are expanding in Umbria region, where signs of presence have been recently found in the Monte Cucco area. In the Abruzzi Region, hosting three of the project sites (i.e., Abruzzi National Park (PNALM), Majella National Park (PNM) and Gran Sasso – Monti della Laga National Park (PNGL)) there are around 100-120 individuals, the populations in the three parks probably being connected. This is 30% of the national population. The three parks represent most of the central Italian population of bears, of a small guestimated size of approx. 30-40 individuals, i.e. 70% of the National population and 0.07% of the European one.
Croatia: The Croatian wolf population seems to be stable around 150 individuals. This animal causes extensive damage on livestock (mostly sheep), and this causes a low level of human acceptance. The Croatian brown bear population numbers 400 – 600 individuals ca. over a range of 11,800 km2. Bears cause increasing damage on human activities, which includes livestock rising, agricultural fields and orchards. This also causes the fear of humans in areas where the species was not previously present and is now expanding into.

Threat 1: Increase of LC-human conflict due to inadequate use of damage prevention measures.

Threat 3: Negative attitude of local communities and farmers

Threat 4: Resentful farmers due to inefficient compensation systems

Threat 5: Human caused mortality due to accidental killing during wild boar hunting

Threat 6: Cumulative effect of damage caused by stray dogs

Threat 7: Economic discontent of farmersConservation measures already taken or proposed for the species at Community or national level: Wolves are at least partially protected in all the project countries. In Spain they are protected only south of the Duero River. In the remaining countries they are protected nationwide. The wolf is a species included in the appendix II of the Bern Convention and in Appendix II of the Habitat Directive for only those populations south of river Duero in Spain (target of the present project). The remaining wolf population is included in appendix IV of the Habitat Directive. All the countries participating to the present project have adhered to the Bern Convention and implemented the Habitat Directive through National Protection Laws.

Improving coexistence of large carnivores and agriculture in S. Europe: COEX (European Comission, 2004-2008) http://bit.ly/OAJJth (Ver COEX: http://www.life-coex.net/Spain/Background_Spain.htm )